Competing Trial Themes Shape Up in Parallel Cases Against Stanford

Allen Stanford, as of Friday, is a criminal and a civil defendant. An indictment unsealed against him reveals further allegations of a financial cabal inside Stanford Financial Group, with Allen Stanford using a controlled-access "black box" to make decisions. What will trial look like? There's a lot of evidence yet to be produced, but the SEC's investigators obviously believe strongly that the profits generated by investors weren't real -- that Stanford ran a Ponzi scheme. When you contrast the $80 billion in assets that Stanford reflected on its books, with the now-missing billions and the lavish lifestyle Allen Stanford afforded himself, the government's themes emerge pretty clearly: incredible greed, protected by deceptive bookkeeping and propped up by hard-sell tactics and big commissions to brokers.

But a good trial, with good lawyers on both sides, is going to mean a battle of message and theme. Stanford's lawyer has set up their own theme: a heavy-handed government investigation has crippled the Stanford Group with negative publicity and innuendo. "The present insolvency of the Stanford Companies," according to Stanford's lawyer, "was caused by the SEC's heavy-handed actions, which have destroyed and continue to destroy much of the value of the Stanford Companies and consequently, the interests of investors."

In this economic climate, who will win the thematic exchange? An average juror will be more apt to view the government as a protective agent, and bulwark against Madoff-style greed and deception, than as an irrational destroyer of corporate value.